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Time Details
2025-12-22
00:49
Crypto Market Near-1.0 Correlation and 2025 TGE Data: 85% of Token Launches Below FDV, Median -71% — Trading Insights

According to @MikeSilagadze, crypto assets are moving with near-1.0 correlation and lack patient, fundamentals-driven capital, pressuring price discovery and diversification. Source: Mike Silagadze on X, Dec 22, 2025. Backing data from Ash shows that across 118 2025 token generation events, 84.7% now trade below their TGE FDV, the median FDV is down 71% and the median market cap is down 67%, with only 15% above TGE. Source: Ash (@ahboyash) Google Sheets dataset and X post, Dec 2025, link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PF7rDVcIzUdlJF5eMdP4RQLl5dGxwHAnY4WdeV2reNE and https://x.com/ahboyash/status/2002363360327704834. The dataset further indicates roughly four out of five launches are below opening valuation, evidencing systematic post-TGE drawdowns in 2025. Source: Ash (@ahboyash) dataset and X post, Dec 2025. For trading, a near-1.0 correlation regime implies limited diversification benefits and elevated beta risk across altcoins, aligning with Mike Silagadze’s assessment. Source: Mike Silagadze on X, Dec 22, 2025. Empirically, TGE-day entries underperformed in 2025 versus subsequent pricing, making entry timing and discount-to-FDV key execution variables. Source: Ash (@ahboyash) dataset and X post, Dec 2025.

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